santa screwed this year?

ya ever notice how an iced drink behaves on a hot day? the ice gets smaller sorta steady like,  then theres a pause, where the cubes are about 1/3 their starting size, and they don’t change size much for a bit.   then, suddenly they’re gone?  saw a version floating on the net without any attrib, so this version of the graph is direct from  NSIDC, the folks who actually count the icebergs.

figure2a

and why ? well it seems the ocean warming has warmed right up to the doorstep of the icepack, and the “plugs” in the straights aren’t forming.  see the really dark red spots in the bering straight? and like all from Greenland to russia?

figure-2b

don’t worry, Santa has water pontoons on the sled.

too bad for the reindeer tho,

http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/12/11/20160466

north_pole_cartoon

 

Perigee Moon Scores

SuperMoon.  harumph.  bullies shame the smart, and american schools teach to the lowest common denominator.  well, it ain’t common, it’s called “Perigee”, when the Moon is closest to Earth, as opposed to “Apogee” when it’s the furthest.  One of these days we’ll rid the earth of the last of the science shamers…

whatever, tide was SUPER LOW, and that is SCIENCE WIN!!!!

img_0431

img_0433

 

As Above…

traditional morse code goodbye is “73”.

that is –… …–  or dah-dah-di-di-dit di-di-dit-dah-dah.

say it fast.

nobody really knows the meaning, but the usage and rhythm i always think:

“As Above So Below”.

As Above,

20161107-n-noaa-19-hvc-precip

So Below

img_0425

tornado in oregon

ok, so that was a nice pressure drop, got 2 inches or more of rain here in the first band.  yeah, not wave, band.  like hurricane’s band up, so did this storm.  more coming, stay tuned.

                        SPC TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REPORTS  
               UNOFFICIAL - FOR OFFICIAL REPORTS, SEE PUBLICATION 'STORM DATA'  
                    FOR 06CST FRI OCT 14  2016 THRU 16CST FRI OCT 14  2016  
    
      EVENT    LOCATION                       REMARKS                 (CST)TIME  
    
  .....TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS.....  
    
   1 *TORN  MANZANITA OR      (31 S AST)                                14/0925  
            WATERSPOUT MOVED ONSHORE. REPORTS OF TORNADO   PQR/LSR   457212393  
                    DAMAGE IN MANZANITA. B  
   2 *TORN  OCEANSIDE OR      (48 S AST)                                14/1005  
            PER VIDEO OBTAINED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...A        PQR/LSR   454712397  
                    WATERSPOUT FORMED OFF  
    

 

screen_shot_2016-10-14_at_103550_am-1476466581-8492

NOAA 19 northbound 39E at 14 Oct 2016 21:47:41 GMT on 137.10MHz, HVC-precip enhancement, Normal projection, Channel A: 2 (near infrared), Channel B: 4 (thermal infrared)

NOAA 19 northbound 39E at 14 Oct 2016 21:47:41 GMT on 137.10MHz, HVC-precip enhancement, Normal projection, Channel A: 2 (near infrared), Channel B: 4 (thermal infrared)

getting closer….

pressure holding steady, sunny HI holding on barely at the coast, still getting a bunch of wood split hoping for a few days of secluded rainy creative and accordion practice.

NOAA 19 northbound 62E at 12 Oct 2016 22:10:08 GMT on 137.10MHz, HVC-precip enhancement, Normal projection, Channel A: 2 (near infrared), Channel B: 4 (thermal infrared)

NOAA 19 northbound 62E at 12 Oct 2016 22:10:08 GMT on 137.10MHz, HVC-precip enhancement, Normal projection, Channel A: 2 (near infrared), Channel B: 4 (thermal infrared)

maybe rain?

signs pointing to some rain in the next days, fingers crossed, bellows squeezed….

NOAA 19 northbound 78E at 11 Oct 2016 22:21:26 GMT on 137.10MHz, HVC-precip enhancement, Normal projection, Channel A: 2 (near infrared), Channel B: 4 (thermal infrared)

NOAA 19 northbound 78E at 11 Oct 2016 22:21:26 GMT on 137.10MHz, HVC-precip enhancement, Normal projection, Channel A: 2 (near infrared), Channel B: 4 (thermal infrared)

bigger storms

nice little bit of reading here on the climate change thing.  i’ve said what Carl said, we’re doomed.  this paper says 2055 gets interesting.  NE conus and western europe get the big storms.  excellent simulations with and without ice melt, etc.  in sum: the hotter we make the planet, the bigger the storms will get. in science-speak,

Increased baroclinicity produced by a stronger tempera- ture gradient provides energy for more severe weather events. Many of the most significant and devastating storms in east- ern North America and western Europe, popularly known as superstorms, have been winter cyclonic storms, though sometimes occurring in late fall or early spring, that gener- ate near-hurricane-force winds and often large amounts of snowfall (Chapter 11, Hansen, 2009). Continued warming of low-latitude oceans in coming decades will provide a larger water vapor repository that can strengthen such storms. If this tropical warming is combined with a cooler North At- lantic Ocean from AMOC slowdown and an increase in mid- latitude eddy energy (Fig. 21), we can anticipate more se- vere baroclinic storms. Increased high pressure due to cooler high-latitude ocean (Fig. 20) can make blocking situations more extreme, with a steeper pressure gradient between the storm’s low-pressure center and the blocking high, thus driv- ing stronger North Atlantic storms.

the good news? their models agree with my theory that eastern pacific will maintain it’s temp.  real estate potential, jes sayin…

2055

Atmospheric River

so who get’s to make up these names? Rivers all wind their own way to the sea.  Vapor, what Atmos means in Latin, rises it’s way to the sky, then (hopefully) comes down as rain, to wind up in a river again, etc. etc.  should be “vapor stream”, or “moisture channel”, “river” is for ground water mmkay?  but even noaa is using it now.  oh well.  still pretty stuff (from NRL MRY, test of gify download), lined up pointing right at the bay, check ur galoshes and rain jackets, will be too windy for umbrellas.

firehose